Confimprese-Jakala: in 2026 the recovery comes to a halt at 1,3 per cent

The stagnation in consumption does not yet appear to be over: this is revealed by the latest edition of the six-monthly retail barometer from Confimprese and Jakala.

The analysis, which continuously monitors a sample of companies associated with Confimprese, covering approximately 500 brands and 100 thousand points of sale, estimates a 1,3% like-for-like growth rate also for 2026 and essentially confirms a trend that had already emerged in 2025.

This is not a sudden collapse, but a persistent and widespread slowdown affecting multiple sectors and at risk of becoming structural.

Low inflation does not guarantee a recovery

One of the main constraining factors is the climate of uncertainty, which continues to weigh on households and businesses.

After years marked by high inflation, geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates, our household finances remain under pressure all the same and, even though inflation has shown signs of slowing, purchasing power has not yet been fully restored.

As a result, many Italians have changed their habits, prioritising essential goods, postponing major expenses and cutting back on discretionary spending. The result is weak domestic demand, which affects the economic development of the entire nation.

Sector forecasts

And yet, as might be expected, the dynamics differ considerably between the various sectors of activity: in clothing no company expects turnover to increase; instead, a -0,8% is estimated, unlike the other retail aggregate (home furnishings, electronics, telecommunications, books, personal care and services), which expects an increase in turnover of 2,5%, while food service shows more moderate forecasts, of around +1,3%.

It should be noted that, according to Confimprese, price-list adjustments are very limited, with a weighted increase of 0,5%, therefore below the expected inflation rate, which fluctuates around +1,5 per cent.

It should be noted that, while clothing and other retail do not intend to significantly increase their promotional effort, food service is proving more willing to do so.

Food service appears more inclined than retail to increase promotional efforts

How promotions are changing

As regards consumers’ preferences in terms of value for money, consistently with an approach geared towards prioritising quality, the preferred discounts are specific ones on brands and goods of a certain quality, as stated by 39,8% of the panel, followed by major themed promotions, cited by 28,8% (sales, Black Friday and below-cost sales).

Only in third place are everyday low-price offers found, such as those implemented, for example, by food discounters. Further behind and declining are the actions of loyalty programmes.

It should be noted, in any case, that promotional activity remains a highly significant driver: only 3,4% of shoppers are indifferent to it.

The recovery is not online

The "Retail Barometer" continues, does not forecast online growth peaks compared with physical retail: 53% of the companies surveyed estimate an e-commerce channel contribution in line with the previous year, and only 13% expect strong growth.

“The global economic context, with inflation, higher transport costs and issues related to international trade, is reducing impulse spending on the Internet – the Confimprese Jakala report states –. Consumers compare prices more carefully and often prefer to save or postpone their purchase. The desire to visit physical shops is returning, as they offer the reassurance of seeing and trying goods in person, together with greater confidence in the information conveyed by packaging”.

More generally, a strong propensity to save and, as mentioned, to reduce spending continues to prevail, with an impact that should particularly affect electronics, entertainment and the home sector, while a more balanced situation is recorded for clothing, food service and beauty, with a fairly similar number of consumers inclined to spend more and customers inclined to impose very strict limits on themselves.

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This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.