Retail sales, shopping basket down in July (food -1%)

July empties the shopping basket. Istat’s preliminary data on retail sales record, on an annual basis, growth of 0,8% in value and a decline of 0,6% in volume.

This is the second consecutive monthly decline in volume. And in the coming months, the increase in prices will weigh more heavily: in August inflation jumped to 3,3%.
In July, retail sales of food products rose in value terms by 0,3% and fell in volume terms by of1%. The non-food sector grew in value terms but declined in volume terms, by +1,1% and -0,2%.

Different rates

Among these goods, year-on-year changes varied across product groups. The largest increase concerned household appliances, radios, TVs and recording equipment (+6,1%) while footwear, leather goods and travel items posted the worst figure, -2,8%.

Compared with July 2025, retail sales increased for large-scale retail distribution, +1,6% in value terms and +0,6% in volume terms, and for online retail, respectively +2,4% and +1,6%.

Discount stores drive growth

The positive figure for large-scale retail distribution is entirely influenced by discount stores, while the boost from supermarkets appears to have run out. In fact, the figure for supermarkets is +1,3% in value terms and -0,2% in volume terms; hypermarkets, respectively, +1,6% and -0,1%; discount stores, +1,9% and +0,4%.
Small retail outlets remain in crisis: zero and -1,7%.

More essential spending

According to the Confcommercio research department, “in the June–July two-month period, consumption shifted towards segments not included in the retail sales index, such as cars and many areas of market services. However, the decline in volumes is a warning sign for many large-scale retail distribution operators. It is clear that, although the weakness of demand for some goods segments is currently more than offset by purchases of other products and services (energy), the risks of a possible slowdown in the final months of 2026, a crucial period both for the balance sheets of many companies in the retail sector and for the country’s growth prospects in 2027".

Fragile demand

For Federdistribuzione, the July figures “confirm that consumer spending remains weak, in a context characterised by persistent elements of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the inflation outlook, driven in particular by rising energy prices. The slight improvement recorded in August in the confidence climate of households and businesses, in the face of lacklustre performance by summer sales, does not alter a picture that highlights further signs of fragility in domestic demand”.

Previous articles:

Prices: in July, the oil fever does not reach the shopping basket (+1,3%)

Retail sales: in May, non-food leads the way. Food sales still down

Retail sales, in 2025 volume terms -0,6%. E-commerce accelerates, +2,9% in value terms

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.