Retail sales, in July the shopping basket shrinks (food -1%)

July empties the shopping basket. Istat's preliminary data on retail sales record, year on year, a growth of 0,8% in value and a decline of 0,6% in volume.

This is the second consecutive monthly decline in volume. And in the coming months, the increase in prices will weigh more heavily: in August, inflation jumped to 3,3%.
In July, retail sales of food rose in value by 0,3% and fell in volume by 1%. Non-food sales grew in value but fell in volume, by +1,1% and -0,2% respectively.

Varying speeds

For these latter goods, heterogeneous year-on-year changes were recorded among the product groups. The largest increase concerned household appliances, radios, TVs and recorders (+6,1%), while footwear, leather goods and travel goods reported the worst figure, -2,8%.

Compared with July 2025, retail sales increased for large-scale retail distribution, +1,6% in value and +0,6% in volume, and online commerce, by +2,4% and +1,6% respectively.

Discount stores leading the way

The positive figure for large-scale retail distribution is entirely driven by discount stores, while the boost from supermarkets appears to have run out. In fact, the figure for supermarkets is +1,3% in value and -0,2% in volume; hypermarkets, respectively, +1,6% and -0,1%; discount stores, +1,9% and +0,4%.
It is still a crisis for small retail outlets: zero and -1,7%.

More essential spending

According to the Confcommercio research department, "during the June–July two-month period, consumption shifted towards segments not included in the retail sales index, such as cars and many areas of market services. However, the decline in volumes is a warning sign for many large-scale retail distribution structures. It is clear that, while the weakness in demand for certain goods segments is currently more than offset by purchases of other products and services (energy), the risks of a possible slowdown in the final months of 2026 should not be overlooked, a crucial period both for the balance sheets of many trading companies and for the country's growth prospects in 2027".

Fragile demand

For Federdistribuzione, the July data “confirm that consumer spending remains weak, in a context characterised by persistent elements of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions continue to affect the inflationary environment, driven in particular by the increase in energy prices. Even the slight improvement recorded in August in the confidence climate of households and businesses, in the face of lacklustre summer sales, does not alter a situation that highlights further signs of fragility in domestic demand”.

Previous articles:

Prices: in July, the oil fever does not enter the shopping basket (+1,3%)

Retail sales, in May non-food leads the way. Food still down

Retail sales, in 2025 volumes -0,6%. E-commerce accelerates, +2,9% in value

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.