The consumer price fever: in August +3,3%. Shopping basket stalled

August with hot prices. The surge in oil prices turbocharges consumer prices, but, against all forecasts, the shopping basket remains unchanged.

According to the preliminary estimates of Istat, in August the national consumer price index (including all products and services) indicates a change of +3,3% year on year, from +2,9% of the previous month. This is the highest figure in the last 3 years.
The sharp acceleration is mainly due to the trend in the prices of regulated energy products, which jumped from +14,8% to +18,8%.

Shopping basket freeze

Prices in the shopping basket (food and household and personal care products) were surprisingly unchanged: +1% year on year. Indeed, in the case of the Russian gas crisis that began in February 2022, in May, the rally in shopping basket prices had reached +6,7%.

Italian inflation is nevertheless perfectly in line with the average for theEurozone: +3,3% compared with 2,9% in July. In Germany it stood at 2,9% and in France at 2,4%. In Spain it rose to the top: +4,5%.

As regards consumer confidence, in August Istat reported a positive development: the index rose from 94,2 to 94,5. Consumers also reported an improvement in the economic climate (from 90,9 to 92,3) while the current climate and the future climate recorded more modest increases (respectively from 97,4 to 97,8 and from 89,8 to 90,2).

Situation under control

According to Mariano Bella, director of the Confcommercio research office, "the increase recorded in August on the price front was partly expected, given the usual seasonal increases. Excluding these trends, the situation, also considering the euro area as a whole, still appears to be under control, with underlying inflation remaining at contained levels, in line with monetary policy targets".

Bella concluded: "With inflation flaring up again, there is a risk that households, despite the continued stability of the labour market, with employment also remaining at historically high levels in July, may interrupt the process of gradually recovering demand which supported growth in the first half of the year".

Grocery retail, combating inflation

For his part, Carlo Alberto Buttarelli, president of Federdistribuzione, stressed that “in this context, it should be emphasised that modern retail companies carry out careful monitoring of price developments, countering pressure for increases not justified by higher costs. This is a responsibility that the sector has demonstrated decisively in recent years and which has helped to keep Italian food inflation at more contained levels than those recorded in many other major European countries”.

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Istat: in 2025 average prices in the shopping basket at +2,4%, food products at +3%

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.