Reno-Confimprese research: mature shopping centres, but constantly growing

Reno has conducted a new exclusive analysis for Confimprese, confirming the thriving maturity of our shopping centres and outlets. The watchword is regeneration.

The study, entitled Retail Real Estate Overview 2026, was presented in Rimini during one of the main events organised by the confederation.

New openings: few but good

Meanwhile, the key figures: the sector is virtually stable and currently has 1.006 active shopping centres (+0,5% of 2024), with a steady pace of 2-4 openings a year and residual closures. Rents are showing a slight increase, or are almost unchanged.

Over the past year, Waterfront Mall in Genoa (15.000 GLA sq m), Fass Shopping Centre in Elmas (Cagliari), the largest facility, with 52.800 sq m of gross lettable area, and, a few minutes from the city centre, Galleria Porta Vittoria in Milan, with approximately 12.000 sq m of retail space, were inaugurated.

Moreover, Iper Tosano in Brescia, formerly the S. Anna centre, has reopened after a redevelopment project and alterations to the entire site.

Among the most prominent projects, Parma Promenade should also be mentioned; however, it officially opened a few weeks ago, on 24 September.

In short, the balance has remained positive, albeit at moderate levels, which are in any case consistent with the large dimensions and significant downstream investments involved in similar real estate projects.

The vacancy rate, or lack of occupancy, also remains at normal levels in premium centres, between 3,1% and 5,2%, while it rises to 8,3% in provincial centres and reaches 15% in local centres.

The maturity of the sector is also reflected in the age of the facilities: 67% of centres are more than twenty years old, with an average age of 24, a similar proportion to that of Germany (64%). Since 2021, interventions on existing facilities, including expansions and reopenings, have numbered 13.

The pipeline 2026-2028

Adds Mario Resca, president of Confimprese: “In this context, value is no longer measured by the number of new openings, but by the ability to make the most of the existing assets. The figures tell us that growth does not come from multiplying floor space, but from regenerating assets”.

For the three-year period 2026-2028 the pipeline comprises 9 projects: 4 new centres – in Cantù (Co), Turin and Brescia, in 2027, and in Messina, in 2028 – and 5 expansions, including those of Shopville Le Gru, Klépierre, and Romagna Shopping Valley, also developed and managed by the French multinational and controlled by the operators’ consortium. If all of them were completed, the stock would grow by a maximum of 0,4%.

“Italian retail real estate is a mature sector, but maturity is not a limitation: it is the condition for a market capable of growing without expanding,” points out Gian Enrico Buso, managing partner of Reno. “Our portfolio of assets, as we have said, is the same age as Germany’s, but in Germany a major modernisation programme has been launched. The challenge for the next decade is not where to build, but what to redevelop”.

How the catchment area changes according to the format

A new element in this edition is the analysis conducted on a sample of more than one hundred shopping centres, based on anonymous geolocation data.

The study measures the actual catchment area, namely the area from which 70% of visits originate, and the length of stay, that is, the actual duration of the visit. The results highlight a distinct profile for each format.

The outlet attracts 70% of visitors from a fairly wide radius, averaging 43 km, with a standard stay of 77 minutes.

The shopping centre attracts the same proportion, but within 17 km, with visits lasting 56 minutes.

The retail park is more or less similar, with an average catchment area within 19 km, but visits lasting 46 minutes and focused on a few specific stores.

Premium centres and local centres: the differences

Differences also emerge between homogeneous retail types: with the same resident population, the catchment area of premium centres is almost three times larger than that of local centres, and the median stay, exceeding one hour for the highest tier, falls to 41 minutes in provincial complexes.

Over the last three years, taking everything into account, visit duration has increased by 4,5 minutes, rising in 7 centres out of 10 and this is contrary to the trend in other Western countries.

The main growth factors come as no particular surprise and consist of the breadth of the offering and the drawing power of entertainment and food services, which can generate up to 15 additional minutes of stay.

The catchment area is a constant, given that 99% of visits come from the same areas as 3 years ago. Redevelopment projects can nevertheless redefine it.

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.