Large-scale retail: Central-South grows more than the North: +4,4 versus +2,8 per cent

Large-scale retail is growing faster in Central-Southern Italy than in Northern Italy: this was one of the key points that emerged at the Marketing & Retail Summit 2026 by Bain & Company.

South versus North: the figures behind the gap

During the period 2014-2025, as shown by the analysis conducted by the leading consultancy firm, the Southern Italy and Islands market recorded growth approximately 1,6 times higher than in the North, with a positive annual rate of 4,4% versus 2,8% in Central-Northern Italy, despite having a 40% smaller market size.

Central-Southern Italy stands out for its generally lower income levels and greater territorial heterogeneity. The earnings gap compared with the provincial capitals of the North is approximately 20 points. Moreover, the difference between provincial capitals and provinces is significantly more marked in Area 4.

Consequently, to respond to the complexity of demand, Southern distributors have broader brand portfolios, recording an average number of 5,1 (versus an average of 3,9 in Central-Northern Italy), moreover up from the 4,7 brands of 2014.

At the same time, Central-Southern Italy and the Islands show a significantly higher share of local food products: +14 per cent.

Several southern distribution companies rank among the top performers, highlighting how achieving a solid local scale is a key factor in sustaining higher levels of profitability.

Local scale is not enough for large-scale retail

However, in a competitive environment that is becoming more intense, the traditional model, based exclusively on a strong local presence, is no longer sufficient, according to Bain & Company, to guarantee a sustainable advantage over time.

It is becoming increasingly necessary to complement local scale with greater absolute scale, which is essential for spreading operating costs, strengthening investment capacity and supporting growth trajectories over the medium to long term.

In this scenario, the sector is called upon to evolve towards more industrial, scalable and diversified models, in which size, both at local and overall level, represents a factor enabling sustainable development and a structural improvement in margins.

"Competition," says Andrea Petronio, senior partner and head of retail in Italy at Bain & Company, "is no longer played out solely through network expansion. It is becoming crucial to carry out mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures, support significant investments and protect margins in an environment increasingly focused on value for money."

According to Bain & Company, with AI, retail can achieve an increase in profitability of up to 3-4 percentage points of Ebit

Growing with artificial… intelligence

One of the strategic levers in this regard is artificial intelligence.

The most advanced retailers, according to the research, are already adopting AI solutions to optimise negotiations with suppliers, support sales staff and develop operating models based on advanced automation, outlining an advantage destined to consolidate over time, with a potential increase in profitability of up to 3-4 percentage points of Ebit.

At the same time, from a broader perspective, it is estimated that approximately the 30% of work could be automated, enabling revenue growth of between 5 and 15% and an improvement in productivity, in support functions, of up to 15 per cent.

"Large-scale retail operators are called upon to make clear strategic choices: accelerate consolidation, invest in distinctive capabilities and adopt scalable operating models to fully seize the growth potential of Central-Southern Italy," concludes Petronio. "Those who can combine local roots, industrial discipline and effective adoption of new technologies will be able to transform market complexity into an advantage, positioning themselves as leaders in the next phase of the sector's evolution."

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This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.