Assalzoo warning: declining maize, Eudr and high energy costs threaten feed and livestock farming

Assalzoo – National Association of Animal Feed Producers warns: national maize production is declining sharply, with quality problems, while tensions on international markets, Eudr and high energy costs are putting pressure on feed and livestock farming.

Maize production

The first cause for concern relates to maize. The initial indications for the 2026 campaign point to a sharp contraction in national production, with reductions which, in the areas hardest hit by drought and high temperatures, exceed 35% even under the most optimistic forecasts. The difficulties are not limited to Italy: estimates for the European maize harvest, initially expected to be around 61 million tonnes, have fallen to approximately 50 million, more than 11 million tonnes lower and one of the lowest levels of the last twenty years.

The quantitative problem is compounded by a qualitative one. The climatic conditions during the campaign have in fact increased the risk of contamination by mycotoxins, with particular concern over aflatoxins and fumonisins. The actual availability of maize suitable for animal feed therefore risks falling further.

The tensions are already visible on the markets too: according to Granaria di Milano quotations, from the end of June to today, national maize meeting the required specifications has risen by around 15%, while dehulled soybean meal has recorded increases of more than 20%.

A particularly significant critical issue for PDO supply chains, in which the requirements concerning the origin and sourcing area of raw materials intended for animal feed limit the possibility of turning to alternative sources. The reduced availability of suitable national maize therefore risks creating difficulties not only for the animal feed industry and livestock farms, but also for some of the most important quality agri-food products of Made in Italy.

Geopolitical tensions

Just as the need to import is increasing, the geopolitical situation is making procurement on international markets more difficult and costly. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and attacks on ports, infrastructure and commercial vessels are disrupting the operation of the Black Sea grain routes, forcing operators to seek alternative origins and routes. For a structurally deficit country such as Italy, diversification and security of supply sources have therefore become a strategic priority.

The impact of Eudr on soya

In this scenario, the imminent application of the European Deforestation Regulation (Eudr) to soya is a particular cause for concern. Soya is an essential protein raw material for animal feed, and Europe remains heavily dependent on imports of it. Assalzoo shares the regulation's environmental objectives, but considers it necessary to consider suspending its application to soya, in view of the exceptional difficulties currently affecting international supplies. At this stage, the introduction of additional restrictions risks restricting access to markets precisely when it would be necessary to ensure the greatest possible diversification of supply sources.

High energy costs

Completing the picture is the sharp increase in energy and diesel costs. Since the beginning of August, Brent has risen by around 25%, while in Italy the average price of diesel for road transport rose from approximately 1,89 euros per litre at the end of June to over 2,33 euros in September, an increase of almost 24% in less than three months. For the animal feed industry, which relies predominantly on road logistics to move raw materials and feed, increases of this magnitude translate directly into strong pressure on procurement and distribution costs.

The comment

"The sharp decline in national maize production, accompanied by growing quality problems, is occurring at the worst possible time. The war is disrupting some of the main international routes for agricultural raw materials, while the imminent application of Eudr risks making access to indispensable products such as soya more complex. Added to all this are rising energy and diesel costs. These factors are compounding one another and risk placing the entire animal-feed supply chain under severe pressure," declares Massimo Zanin, president of Assalzoo – National Association of Animal Feed Producers.

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.