Coffee and hot drinks: an indispensable sip of everyday pleasure

Despite the sharp rise in prices in recent years, coffee and hot drinks can only continue to be part of Italians’ daily ritual. However, the offering is becoming increasingly diverse.

In the year ending 28 September 2025, the coffee and hot drinks market recorded turnover of approximately 2,2 billion euros (NIQ data, total Italy, Hypermarkets+Supermarkets+Free-service stores+Discounters), up 20,3% on the previous year. In terms of volume sales, there was a decrease of 1,4%, with more than 120 million kilograms sold, while packaged sales increased by 1,4%. “This is partly due to the fact that larger packs of single-serve products are being sold,” explains Francesco Murru of NIQ, “so consumers pay less per capsule or pod. Prices increased both by volume and by pack, by 22% and 18,6% respectively. Promotional pressure, on the other hand, fell by 4,4 points (from 33,9% to 29,5%), while the average number of references rose by 1,1%.”

Geographical areas and distribution channels

Analysing the allocation of sales across the various distribution channels, supermarkets are where most turnover is concentrated (46,1%), recording a value trend of +21,4% and generating turnover of one billion euros. They are followed by hypermarkets (sales location by value 26,6%), with value growth of 18,3% and an absolute increase in turnover of approximately 89,8 million euros. In third place are discounters (sales location by value 16,7%) and, finally, free-service stores (sales location 10,6%), which recorded increases in value sales of 21,4% and 18,8% respectively. The contraction in volumes is occurring mainly in free-service stores, with a trend of -5,6%. “In the sector,” Murru continues, “modern distribution accounts for 83,3% of total Italian value sales and 79,9% of volume sales, generating turnover of approximately 1,8 billion euros. Looking at the four NIQ Areas in modern distribution, an increase in value sales can be seen across all of them, with trends of +16,6% (Area 1), +17,1% (Area 2), +18,9% (Area 3) and +28,6% (Area 4) respectively. The opposite trend can be seen when analysing volume sales, which recorded negative changes everywhere. As for packaged sales, the figures were stable, except in Area 4, where growth was recorded compared with the previous year (+4,4%).”

Segment performance

The coffee sector is divided into five main segments: ground coffee, coffee beans, instant coffee, barley and coffee substitutes, and milk modifiers. Specifically, ground coffee accounts for 84,6% of the market by value (approximately 1,8 billion euros, trend +21,8%), while coffee beans are far behind, representing 5,5% (120,1 million euros, trend +33,2%); they are followed by instant coffee, which accounts for 4,9% (106,1 million euros, trend +4,6%), the barley and coffee substitutes segment, which accounts for 2,6% (56,4 million euros, trend +2,3%), and milk modifiers, with 2,4% (53,2 million euros, trend +3,5%). The ground coffee segment must, however, be further divided into different types of ground coffee, capsules and pods. Specifically, by volume, the standard ground coffee sub-segment showed negative trends of -9,4%, while ground coffees with specific characteristics grew, such as espresso ground coffee, which grew by 2%, 100% Arabica, whose sales increased by 3,5%, and 100% Arabica espresso ground coffee, which recorded volume sales 13,3% higher. Capsules and pods, on the other hand, grew both in value and volume, because consumers increasingly appreciate these high-service-content segments, which guarantee simplicity and a more satisfying user experience. In the capsule market, Nespresso capsules recorded +8,8%, Dolce Gusto capsules +11,1% and A modo mio capsules +5,7%; capsules belonging to other systems grew by 0,5%. Finally, pod volume sales increased by 19,1%. While all segments showed positive value performance due to the impact of inflation, only the coffee beans segment grew in volume (+3,1%). For total Italy, the price positioning of the coffee category is 18,03, +22% compared with the previous year. The average price per pack also increased (+18,6%). At segment level, the largest price increase was recorded for beans (+29,2%), reaching 13,8 €/kg, but ground coffee also saw an overall above-average increase in the price per kilo (+23,3%), reaching 19,07 €/kg. The most expensive products nevertheless remain instant coffees, at 23,45 €/kg. Promotional pressure fell across all segments, in particular: ground coffee had volume promotional intensity of 33,5% (-4,9 points compared with the previous year), while the coffee beans segment stood at 17,2% (-2 points).

Read more in DM Magazine December 2025

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.