Shopify Report: Italians are more cautious about holiday shopping, but businesses remain confident

According to Shopify’s Holiday Retail Report 2026, ahead of Black Friday & Cyber Monday and the festive season, consumers are more cautious, but businesses are confident about the season’s prospects.

Italians continue to spend but with greater care, maintaining an approach that reflects the global trend: they compare alternatives, assess products more carefully and wait to identify a purchase they consider genuinely worthwhile. At the same time, artificial intelligence is taking on an increasingly important role in the shopping journey, helping people discover products, compare options and navigate the different possibilities.

Italians are spending more carefully

Economic conditions are influencing purchasing habits: 63% of Italian consumers say they have been negatively affected over the past year, and this greater caution is also reflected in the spending planned for the Bfcm weekend 2026, which stands at 172 euros in 2026, compared with 185 euros in 2025.

Rather than giving up on purchases, Italians therefore seem to be dedicating more time to evaluating alternatives. 27% intentionally leaves products in the basket while deciding whether to buy them, 32% completes the purchase when the price falls or the product goes on promotion, while 23% decides to buy after having more time to consider it. For 21%, on the other hand, free delivery, faster delivery or simpler returns make the difference.

“Italian consumers have not stopped spending, but today they assess the value of each purchase more carefully,” comments Paolo Picazio, Shopify country manager for Italy. “Ahead of the festive period, businesses cannot rely solely on discounts. They must communicate the value of their products clearly, make the purchasing journey as simple as possible and offer an experience capable of building trust and relevance with customers.”

Businesses are confident

While consumers are more cautious, Italian businesses are maintaining a positive outlook: 74% expect sales to grow during the festive period.

To support this growth, businesses are looking beyond the individual transaction and focusing on initiatives capable of strengthening customer relationships. The strategies identified include discounts for returning customers, loyalty programmes and improvements to delivery, tracking and returns management.

An approach that reflects a broader change: the value of a purchase is not built solely at the point of payment, but throughout the journey, including discovery, evaluation, delivery and the post-purchase relationship.

AI enters the shopping journey

Artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming part of the process through which consumers search for and assess products. 3 Italians out of 4 (72%) say they are likely to use AI for at least one shopping activity during the festive period.

Openness to and willingness to delegate certain stages of the purchasing journey to AI varies according to the role assigned to it and decreases (albeit very slightly) when moving from recommendations to completing the transaction: 47% feel comfortable letting AI suggest which product to buy, 37% would accept AI building the basket while retaining control of the purchase, while 36% trust AI enough to let it complete a purchase on their behalf.

Businesses are also preparing for this change: 43% is creating AI-generated content, 40% is making its stores easier for AI assistants to read and recommend, and 39% is prioritising AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants.

“AI is changing the way consumers discover and assess products,” continues Paolo Picazio. “For merchants, this means a greater opportunity to be discovered beyond the best-known categories and brands. To seize it, it is essential to start with solid foundations: accurate product information, clear prices, up-to-date availability and transparent details about delivery and returns. These are the elements that help both people and AI tools understand why a product deserves to be chosen.”

Shopping is becoming increasingly hybrid

Shopify’s research also shows how the shopping experience continues to develop across different channels. 39% of consumers surveyed globally expect to divide their purchases evenly between online and physical stores, while 26% will shop primarily online and 27% mainly in-store.

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.