Netcomm: during Black Friday week, Italians will spend 4,3 billion euros online (+6%)

During the Black Friday week, according to estimates by the Netcomm – School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano B2c E-commerce Observatory, Italians will spend approximately 4,3 billion euros online (+6% compared with 2025).

On this occasion, operators will generate 3 times the turnover of an average day. The online penetration of products in total retail purchases (online + offline) is 11,5%, an increase of almost half a percentage point compared with 2025. During the 13 days that characterise the initiative, 44,3 million parcels will circulate, up 6,6% on last year, with 27,4 million online shoppers.

The categories

The categories most affected by these initiatives will be beauty & healthcare, clothing, food & grocery and IT. In particular, in the beauty sector, the Observatory estimates that during Black Week the value of online purchases could be up to 5 times higher than on a normal shopping day. In addition, Netcomm highlights that during the Black Friday period some categories are purchased with an intensity far above the annual average: orders for toys and hobbies are expected to be more than 70% above the annual average, followed by sport and leisure and baby products.

The main promotional policies

According to estimates by the B2c E-commerce Observatory, the average discount applied by merchants remains stable and will also stand at 25% in 2026, through various promotional methods. One of the most common initiatives is aimed at rewarding a specific customer target: advance discounts for the most loyal customers stand out (40%).

Some merchants instead prefer to apply discounts across the entire range for the whole duration of the promotional initiative (30%). Among the criteria most often cited for selecting the promotional assortment, one in two merchants said that they would focus discounts on excess slow-moving or most popular products. One in three companies will apply discount policies to high-margin products, while 20% will focus on specific categories.

The North drives purchases

Based on actual data from last year, Netcomm estimates that during the Black Friday period almost half (48,4%) of purchases will be made in the regions of Northern Italy, in particular 28,8% from the North-West and 19,6% from the North-East of the country. In the South, approximately 20% of shoppers are expected, in Central Italy approximately 18% and in the Islands around 10%.

The comments

Roberto Liscia, president of Netcomm, comments: “More than 44 million parcels will circulate during the 13 days of Black Friday, according to Netcomm’s Delivery Index forecasts, equal to 4,8% of the total recorded in an entire year, with growth of 6,6% compared with last year. We expect 27,4 million Italians to use the online channel for their purchases during this period. These figures confirm the strength of an initiative that has now become the quintessential moment when Italians concentrate a significant proportion of their purchases, both for Christmas and otherwise: many consumers, in fact, wait for this period to make their most important purchases, with a basket value above the average for the rest of the year. Moreover, Black Friday is no longer a single day, but a period that grows longer every year, with an increasingly early peak: in 2025, the days of greatest activity were the Thursday and Friday of the previous week, when promotions begin, and not even the December peak ahead of Christmas reached those levels”.

Valentina Pontiggia, director of the Netcomm – School of Management of the Politecnico di Milano B2c E-commerce Observatory, states: “This year, Black Friday takes on a different meaning. On the one hand, it confirms itself as an opportunity to address price pressures; on the other, it becomes an opportunity for consumers to access higher-quality products: more durable products, made from valuable raw materials or higher-quality fabrics. During Black Friday week, we estimate online purchases of 4,3 billion euros (+6% compared with 2025), in a B2c e-commerce market that in 2026 reaches a total of 67 billion euros, up 7%. Black Friday is also an important time for bringing forward the purchase of Christmas gifts and, in this context, for the first time the use of Artificial Intelligence will be truly significant: advanced chatbots and assistants based on generative AI support the end customer in purchasing complex products and services. Their use mainly concerns the research, comparison and selection stages: AI can help identify products that match one’s needs, compare alternatives, interpret technical specifications and find offers compatible with the available budget. This support will make purchasing Christmas gifts less stressful”.

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.