Retail sales: in September, the shopping basket is less full (-0,1%) but more expensive

In September, consumption records another small step backwards: Istat's preliminary data on retail sales record, year on year, a growth of 1,6% in value terms and a decline of 0,1% in volume terms. The result of the acceleration in prices of 4,2%.

In July, food retail sales rose in value terms by 1,7% and fell in volume terms by 0,1%. The trend was identical for non-food: growth in value terms but a decline in volume terms, respectively +1,5% and -0,2%.

Tech and online pull down

In this latter category of goods, widespread year-on-year changes are recorded in value terms. The biggest increase concerns IT, tlc and telephony (+5,7%), while clothing records the only negative figure: -0,6%.

Compared with September 2025, retail sales are up for large-scale distribution, +1% in value terms but flat in volume terms, while online commerce continues to soar, respectively +8,5% and +7,1%.

In September, within large-scale distribution, only discount stores maintained their position. The year-on-year figure for hypermarkets is +0,7% in value terms and -1,2% in volume terms; for supermarkets, respectively, +1,5% and -0,4%, and for discount stores, +3,3% and +1,4%.
The trend among businesses operating on small premises remains critical: +0,7 in value terms and -1,2% in volume terms.

Essential spending

According to Mariano Bella, director of Confcommercio's research office, "the stagnation in sales recorded in September is perfectly in line with the slowdown in the economy in the third quarter. Outside the retail sales index, tourism and culture, other services and car sales indicate that, from the standpoint of household spending, there is still overall growth."
However, the situation appears worse for sales of goods through physical shops: the businesses most affected continue to be the smaller ones, but signs of difficulty are also emerging among large-scale distribution companies.
Bella then warns that "the renewed acceleration of inflation, especially in its energy component, risks making the situation more complex in the coming months. The shift in spending shares towards essential spending, particularly gas and electricity, could lead to a further slowdown in demand, with a reduction in the profitability of many businesses and negative effects on growth".

Christmas at risk

Finally, according to Federdistribuzione, "the weak trend in consumption was confirmed again in September, penalised by an economic environment that continues to be characterised by a high level of uncertainty. The main factor weighing on it is the increase in the prices of energy goods, fuelled by international tensions, which are contributing to a new acceleration in inflation."
This is compounded by "the deterioration in consumer confidence recorded by Istat in October, a sign that risks undermining the prospects for a recovery in domestic demand in the coming months. This is a worrying context also in view of the final part of the year, which is crucial to businesses' financial results."

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.