Confcommercio Misery Index at its highest since February 2024. Blame energy and fresh food

Bad news from the Confcommercio Misery Index, a statistic measuring socioeconomic hardship, which has reached its highest level since February 2024, that is, in two years and 7 months.

In September 2026, according to the initial estimates, the index stood at 12,2, up by four tenths of a percentage point compared with August.

With a stable labour market, extended unemployment (which also includes situations in a sort of ‘grey area’) stands at 6,6%, marginally down on August.

Prices of frequently purchased goods and services accelerate

The deterioration in the indicator is due to the acceleration in prices for frequently purchased goods and services (+5,3% from +4,3% in August), caused by energy products and fresh food.

Looking ahead, fears of a further widening of the area of social hardship are confirmed, fundamentally driven by the persistence of tensions over imported raw materials.

“The persistence of high inflationary dynamics for goods and services purchased most frequently by households, and the risks of its spreading to other supply chains – it says – reinforce concerns about a possible slowdown in household demand in the coming months due to a reduction in disposable income”.

End-of-year concerns

More specifically, looking ahead, fears of further rises in consumer prices in the latter part of 2026 are intensifying, which usually corresponds to a surge in demand.

It should be noted, in any event, that since last June, inflationary pressures have also been recorded in some important technology products (personal computers and others), as a reflection of the sector’s structural problems.

“The possibility of negative repercussions on household spending patterns during the winter months and, consequently, on growth prospects is therefore increasing – Confcom reiterates.”

Confidence climate slows after three months

All this is combined with the findings of Istat on the confidence climate, which also in September, lost ground after three months, for both consumers and businesses: from 94,5 to 91,2 for households and from 97,0 to 95,9 for businesses.

The negative change, the Central Institute of Statistics explains, is due to the weakening of the index in the services and construction sectors.

However, positive signals come from assessments of orders and demand in manufacturing and from assessments of sales in retail.

As regards consumers, Istat nevertheless warns that the month-on-month dynamics of confidence climates and their respective balances, estimated in September 2026, are partly affected by certain changes concerning the organisation of the survey network.

Excluding the effects attributable to technical issues, a moderate reduction was recorded, again for last month, in the overall indicator and in the personal, current and future indicators, while the economic climate showed a slightly more marked decrease.

This article was translated from the original Italian version with the assistance of artificial intelligence. In case of discrepancies, please refer to the original Italian version.